So, How Many Oscars Did Nate Silver Correctly Predict?

By: Daniel Villarreal
2.25.2013

EDITOR'S NOTE: An earlier version of this story accidentally listed Daniel Day-Lewis as winner of the Best Actress Academy Award. Mr. Day-Lewis was neither nominated for the award nor is he a woman.

Gay stats wizard Nate Silver applied his election predicting skills to forecast the top six Academy Award winners.

At the time, he admitted that his predictions weren't foolproof — something made harder by the influence of money, politics and whimsy in the selection of winners. Bet's compare his picks to the actual winners below:

Best Picture
SILVER's PICK: Argo
ACTUAL WINNER: Argo

Best Director
SILVER's PICK: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
ACTUAL WINNER: Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Best Actor
SILVER's PICK: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
ACTUAL WINNER: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Best Actress
SILVER's PICK: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
ACTUAL WINNER: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actor
SILVER's PICK: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
ACTUAL WINNER: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Best Supporting Actress
SILVER's PICK: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
ACTUAL WINNER: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

In short, Silver got 66.6 percent correct. That's a D+! Perhaps he should stick to professional gambling, baseball stats and calling electoral college results. After all, he got his Election Night predictions 100 percent correct.

Tags: MOVIES
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